Predictions
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Shrunken Earnings Predictions are Better Predictions
Analysts’ earnings forecasts are not perfectly correlated with actual earnings. One statistical consequence is that the most optimistic and most pessimistic forecasts are usually too optimistic and too pessimistic. The forecasts’ accuracy can be improved by shrinking them toward the mean. Insufficient appreciation of this statistical principle may partly explain the success of contrarian invest...
متن کاملDemographic Predictions of Couples' Emotional Divorce
Introduction: Emotional divorce is very common in today's society and leads to negative consequences in the family and society, so the purpose of this study was to investigate the demographic predictions of emotional divorce of couples in Zanjan province. Materials and Methods: This research was descriptive-analytical. The study population was all couples in Zanjan province. The sample size ba...
متن کاملCounterfactual Predictions
The difficulties in properly anticipating key economic variables may encourage decision makers to rely on experts’ forecasts. The experts’ forecasts, however, may not be accurate. So, their forecasts must be empirically tested. This may induce experts to forecast strategically to pass the test. A test can be ignorantly passed if a false expert, with no knowledge of the data generating process, ...
متن کاملRevising Predictions
Making a prediction is essentially expressing a belief about the future. It is therefore natural to interpret later predictions as revisions of earlier ones and to investigate the notion of belief revision in this context. We study, both semantically and syntactically, the following principle of minimum revision of prediction: "as long as there are no surprises, that is, as long as what actuall...
متن کاملSurprising Predictions
This paper describes a computational framework for theoretical models of classical conditioning. It is based on the engineering technique of Kalman filtering, which describes how systems can infer regularities in noisy and changing environments based on the results of partial experiments. The resulting class of conditioning theories has similarities with three existing (and apparently incompati...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: IUBMB Life (International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology: Life)
سال: 2001
ISSN: 1521-6543,1521-6551
DOI: 10.1080/152165401753544197